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✓ Registered Nurse · SA 190 · 75 pts · granted 3 days ago 📡 TAS 491 round · Chefs invited · 65 pts · March 18 ⚠️ SA Talent stream · reopened March 20 · limited places ✓ Software Engineer · ACT 491 · 80 pts · granted 5 days ago 📊 Accountant EOI pool · 15,240 active EOIs · up 340 this month ✓ Registered Nurse · SA 190 · 75 pts · granted 3 days ago 📡 TAS 491 round · Chefs invited · 65 pts · March 18 ⚠️ SA Talent stream · reopened March 20 · limited places ✓ Software Engineer · ACT 491 · 80 pts · granted 5 days ago 📊 Accountant EOI pool · 15,240 active EOIs · up 340 this month

How VisaIQ Calculates Your PR Chances — Methodology and Data Sources

Every number on this platform has a source, a last-updated date, and a confidence level. This page explains exactly where data comes from, how scores are calculated, and what we never claim.

Important — read first
VisaIQ provides AI-informed research based on publicly available DHA data and community-submitted timelines. This is not migration advice. Every output is a historical rate observed in similar profiles — not a prediction of your individual outcome.
For advice specific to your circumstances, consult a MARA-registered migration agent at mara.gov.au
Section 1

Where the data
comes from

Every data point on VisaIQ is sourced from one of four places. We do not estimate from competitor websites or use data without a verifiable government source.

🏛️
DHA SkillSelect Invitation Round Results
The Department of Home Affairs publishes official invitation round results at immi.homeaffairs.gov.au. We extract cutoff scores by occupation, total invitations and occupation-level breakdown within 24–48 hours of each round. The last confirmed rounds were 13 November 2025 (10,000 invitations issued) and August 2025 (6,887 invitations). These are the only two rounds in the 2026 program year so far.
Updated within 48hrs of each round
🗂️
DHA SkillSelect Quarterly Statistics
DHA publishes quarterly SkillSelect reports covering total EOI lodgements by occupation, average time in pool before invitation, and invitation rates by points band. We use these to estimate EOI pool sizes and queue depths. Last used: September 2025 quarter report.
Updated quarterly — Sep/Dec/Mar/Jun
🗺️
State Government Nomination Program Data
Each state publishes its own nomination program details — occupation lists, allocation numbers, selection criteria and round schedules. We monitor all 8 state migration portals continuously. Allocation figures are from the 2026 DHA Migration Program Year published July 2025.
Monitored continuously — updates published as announced
👥
Community-Submitted Grant Timelines
VisaIQ collects grant outcome submissions from users who have received their visa decision. Each submission includes occupation, state, visa subclass, points score at invitation, and days from EOI to grant. This supplements official data with real-world timelines not published by government. Submit yours at visaiq.com.au/submit
Continuous — each submission updates the dataset
⏱️
DHA Global Visa Processing Times
DHA publishes monthly global processing time data showing 50th and 90th percentile times for each visa subclass. We use these figures directly — not estimates. Last updated from DHA: March 2026.
Updated monthly from DHA source

Section 2

How the probability
engine works

When VisaIQ shows "44% of similar profiles received an invitation within 12 months" — here is exactly what that means and how it is calculated.

What "similar profiles" means

The engine identifies profiles from the dataset that match your inputs across four dimensions: occupation group (same ANZSCO category), points band (within ±5 pts of your score), visa type targeted (189, 190, or 491), and state (same or comparable state). The percentage shown is the proportion of those matching profiles that received an invitation within the time window.

The calculation in plain English
// Step 1: Find all profiles matching occupation + points band + visa type
matching_profiles = dataset.filter(occ_group, points_band, visa_type)

// Step 2: Count how many received an invitation within the time window
invited_count = matching_profiles.filter(invited_within_12_months)

// Step 3: Calculate the historical rate
historical_rate = invited_count / matching_profiles.length

// Step 4: Apply confidence interval based on sample size
displayed_range = historical_rate ± confidence_margin

This is a historical rate, not a prediction. It shows what happened to people who looked like you in the past — not what will happen to you specifically, because migration policy changes and individual circumstances differ.

Confidence levels — what the labels mean
LevelSample sizeWhat it meansDisplay
High500+ profilesStatistically robust. Rates are likely representative of real patterns for this occupation and points band.Narrow range e.g. "42–48%"
Moderate100–499 profilesDirectionally useful but confidence interval is wider.Medium range e.g. "35–55%"
LowUnder 100 profilesLimited data. Treat as directional indicator only, not a reliable estimate.Wide range e.g. "20–65%"
The DHA 4-Tier Occupation Priority System (2026)

From the 2026 program year, DHA introduced a tiered occupation multiplier system for 189 skilled independent invitations. This is official DHA policy — not a VisaIQ estimate. The four tiers determine how many invitations each occupation receives:

Tier 1 — 4× multiplier
Medical, nursing, allied health, dentistry
Tier 2 — 2× multiplier
Teachers, psychologists, social workers
Tier 3 — 1× multiplier
Engineers, trades, architects, scientists
Tier 4 — 0.5× multiplier
Accountants, ICT managers, hospitality

Source: DHA FOI documentation and official SkillSelect round announcements, November 2025.


Section 3

What we
never claim

VisaIQ is a data publisher, not a migration agent. There are things we deliberately never say because they would be inaccurate, misleading, or outside our scope.

We never say "you will be invited." We show what percentage of similar profiles received invitations historically. Whether you personally receive one depends on DHA decisions, policy changes, and factors specific to your application.
We never say your occupation will stay on the skilled list. The MLTSSL and STSOL are reviewed annually. An occupation can be added or removed. We show current list status only.
We never provide legal or migration advice. We show data. We do not advise on which visa to apply for, whether to submit your EOI, or how to structure your application. That is the role of a MARA-registered migration agent.
We never guarantee processing times. DHA processing times are indicative only. Individual applications can take longer due to health checks, character assessments, or case officer workload.
We never claim state nomination data is current to the day. State governments update occupation lists without public notice. We update as quickly as possible but there may be a lag between a state change and our data reflecting it.
We never claim community-submitted data is verified. Grant timeline submissions are self-reported. We use statistical outlier detection to identify implausible entries but cannot guarantee accuracy of every data point.

Section 4

Data freshness
by type

Every data type has a specific update schedule. Here is when each type was last updated and when to expect the next.

189 federal round cutoffs
Cutoff scores by occupation from SkillSelect
Last: Nov 13 2025
Next: when Round 3 announced
State nomination cutoffs (approx.)
Based on observed invitation patterns
Last: March 2026
Updated within 48hrs of each state round
EOI pool sizes
Estimated active EOIs per occupation
Last: Sep 2025
Next: Dec 2025 quarter report
Visa processing times
50th and 90th percentile from DHA
Last: March 2026
Updated monthly from DHA
State allocation numbers
190/491 places per state for 2026
Last: Jul 2025
Annual — next update Jul 2026
Community grant timelines
Self-reported outcomes from VisaIQ users
Continuous
Each submission updates immediately

Section 5

Honest
limitations

Part of being useful is being honest about what we cannot do.

Policy changes overnight

Australia's migration policy can change with 24 hours notice. Historical patterns from 6 months ago may not reflect current reality. Always verify current rules with official DHA sources or a MARA agent.

Individual circumstances vary

Two people with identical points scores can have very different outcomes based on skills assessment, health history, character checks, and the case officer assigned. We show population-level patterns, not individual case predictions.

EOI pool data has a lag

SkillSelect pool data is published quarterly with a 6-week lag. The actual pool at any moment could differ significantly from what we show. We note this in confidence intervals.

State cutoffs are estimates

Most states do not publish a specific points cutoff. We estimate from observed invitation patterns and state government statements. These carry more uncertainty than federal DHA data.

Small dataset for new occupations

For occupations with few community submissions, confidence is Low. We show this explicitly. Treat as directional indicators, not reliable estimates.

We are not MARA registered

VisaIQ is a data platform, not a migration agency. We cannot advise on individual applications, provide legal interpretation of visa conditions, or represent you to the Department of Home Affairs.