What DHA publishes publicly

The Department of Home Affairs publishes the following data through the SkillSelect dashboard and quarterly migration program reports:

• Total number of EOIs submitted per occupation per visa subclass (189, 190, 491)
• Total number of invitations issued per round per occupation
• The minimum points score (cutoff) at which invitations were issued each round
• Round dates and frequency
• Total program year allocations by visa subclass

What DHA does not publish — and how we model it

Our modelling approach:

• Total pool size — taken directly from DHA SkillSelect published totals per occupation
• Point-band distribution — modelled using a weighted distribution curve calibrated against historical invitation patterns. When DHA invites at 75 pts, we know the number invited (published) and can back-calculate approximate band densities
• Percentile ranking — derived from the modelled distribution. If we estimate 4,531 total nurses in the pool and 489 above 85 pts, the percentile is 489/4531 = 90th percentile
• Weekly intake rate (15–25 new EOIs) — based on round-over-round pool growth divided by weeks between published rounds. This is an average across recent rounds, not a real-time measurement
• Same-band competitor count (e.g. "59 nurses at exactly 85 pts") — modelled using band width assumptions derived from invitation pattern analysis. This figure has the widest margin of error of any number in the report

State nomination data

State and territory nomination allocation and usage figures are sourced from:

• Annual migration program statements published by the Australian Government
• State government immigration department announcements
• Fragomen, Leading Edge Migration and other registered migration agency quarterly reports that track state nomination usage

The 2025–26 figures (total allocations, estimated used, remaining) reflect VisaIQ's best estimate as of April 2026 based on cross-referencing these sources. Individual state departments do not publish real-time remaining place counts.

Comparable profiles and outcome projections

The "Comparable Profiles" section shows projected outcomes — not tracked historical data. VisaIQ does not collect or store individual applicant outcome data.

Figures like "73% receive invitation within 6 months" are calculated as follows:

• Take the current modelled pool size above the cutoff for the occupation
• Apply the current invitation rate per round (published by DHA)
• Calculate what percentage of the pool would be invited within 6 rounds at that pace
• Adjust for probability that not all rounds will invite at the same cutoff

This is a forward projection based on current data — not a claim about what happened to past applicants with similar profiles.

Invitation projections ("Round X — July 2026")

The two-scenario invitation projections are calculated by:

• Estimating the number of applicants ahead of the user in the queue
• Dividing by an estimated invitation volume per round for that occupation (derived from historical published rounds)
• Adding to the April 2026 base date to arrive at a projected round month

These projections assume invitation pace holds constant — which it may not. Policy changes, allocation adjustments, or occupation demand shifts can materially affect actual timing. Treat these as planning estimates, not guarantees.

Primary data sources

Important disclaimers

VisaIQ is a data intelligence platform providing modelled analysis for strategic planning purposes only. We are not a registered migration agent (MARA) and this report does not constitute migration advice.

All pool estimates carry inherent uncertainty — the margin of error on point-band figures is approximately ±15–20%. Depletion rates, invitation projections and outcome probabilities are modelled, not guaranteed.

Immigration policy changes frequently. Always verify current data at immi.homeaffairs.gov.au and consult a MARA-registered agent for decisions affecting your visa status.